Mixed Signals On What To Expect With Future Kansas City Real Estate Foreclosures

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

I was surprised to hear the volume of foreclosures nationally has slowed significantly. These are credible year-over-year stats as reported by RealtyTrac. Indications are that foreclosure activity has dropped 1/3 May 2011 compared to May of last year. This puts foreclosures at a four-year low. In May, about 1 in 600 homeowners received some sort of foreclosure filing, which could include a default notification, scheduling of an auction date, finalized repossession, etc. 


Still, most experts agree there’s 2 to 3 years worth of distressed property inventory to eat up across the U.S. Additionally, I’ve seen estimates that for every current REO foreclosure listing, there’s two more listings yet to hit the market. If true, that’s going to significantly impact the promising reports of falling foreclosure activity nationally. I wonder if the build-up is due more to banks having trouble getting properties ready to go on the market, banks using discretion to not flood the real estate market with more distressed properties or if a lot of its to do with lenders being forced to change how they handle the process and thus having to re-start many foreclosure proceedings.


Posted by Jason Brown

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Potential FHA Loan Changes Would Have A Drastic Effect On Kansas City Home Buyers… And Home Sellers

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Mortgage industry consultant Brian Chappelle estimates that FORTY PERCENT of home buyers would fall out of the market-place if FHA raises the minimum down payment requirement from 3.5% to 5%. I just don’t see how we can afford to implement these types of drastic changes with a real estate market – and economy – already on edge. The lack of buyer demand is already harming property values across the country and imagine what would happen if 40% of home buyers disappeared due to sweeping FHA mortgage changes.


Increasing the minimum down payment from 3.5% to 5% on a $200,000 Johnson County Kansas home, would increase the home buyer’s down payment from $7,000 to $10,000. That’s a very significant THREE THOUSAND dollars and anyone thinking the potential FHA changes would be insignificant should think again.  $3,000 is guaranteed to run many home buyers we’re working with right now out of buying home. That will mean less demand for area home sellers and we all know what that means — lower sales prices.  These changes are very likely to happen though as we work to lessen the government’s involvement in the housing market. I hope there’s someone with a good head on their shoulders suggesting they SLOWLY (incrementally?) implement these types of changes. If not, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. 


Posted by Jason Brown

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Most Believe A Real Estate Market Recovery Is At Least A Couple Of Years Away

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

A collaborative report by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac.com finds that 54% of a random 2,000+ people surveyed believe the soonest the housing market will recover is 2014. Perception is reality and for more than half of the people surveyed to believe that, we’re in for a long road ahead. Just six months ago a similar poll found 34% of respondents believed the soonest the housing market would recover would be in 2014. To find that 20% more people feel this way just six months later won’t come as a surprise to many home sellers out there and the path to a successful home sale is clearly ever-changing.

Just 18% of those polled felt the real estate market would improve in 2012 or sooner. It’s possible that things can change that quickly. Truly though, I believe NO ONE can predict just how fast things may improve. Once enough home buyers start jumping back into the market (in anticipation we’re on our way up), it’s anyone’s guess how much affect that will have on home prices.  It could depend whether foreclosures are rising or falling when we get to that point and, again, NO ONE can predict the timing of that either.


Posted by Jason Brown

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A Year Of Real Estate Market Stats Covering the Entire Kansas City Metro Area

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Here’s a look at the real estate stats for the entire Kansas City metro MLS area. This includes  Johnson County Kansas, Overland Park, Olathe, Leawood, Lenexa, Shawnee, Prairie Village, Lee’s Summit, Independence, Blue Springs, Grandview, Liberty, KCK and every listing in between that reports to the MLS. The graph below is a look at the past 14 months of real estate activity. You’ll see in the light green area that there was a significant dip in the volume of homes on the market in January and February. Since that time, the spring real estate market has brought the typical jump in the number of Kansas City homes for sale. But we’re still below the volume of homes that were on the market this time last year and that’s a good sign.

We won’t compare April’s sales rate to last April’s because you can see last year’s stats were grossly inflated by the home buyer tax credit that was still in effect. Looking at just the past few months, sales in both March and April (individually) were better than and other month since the tax credit ended (with the exception of July last year).

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Overland Park Kansas Real Estate Update – May 2011

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market
Real Estate Info for The City of Overland Park KS
Recent
15 Days of Overland Park Kansas Market Activity

After calculating the absorption rate over the past 15 days in Overland Park Kansas, we find the city has 9.2 months of inventory currently on the market. This amount of inventory represents a continuation of a buyer’s market in Overland Park Kansas. Though the numbers of home sold (closed) the past 15 days wasn’t too impressive, more than double that number of homes went under contract. If the 143 homes that went under contract were to make it the closing table, the amount of inventory (calculated on the current volume of 1,150 homes for sale in Overland Park) could be re-calculated at right around 4 months of inventory. 

Type

#

Average $

Avg DOM

Listings Past 15 Days

183 $280,675

Total Active Listings

1,150

Newest Contracts Written

143 $273,525 97

Newest Sold (Closed)

63 $234,684 107

* The Average $ of Newest Contracts considers the price the homes were listed at when they went under contract. Data pulled from Heartland MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Low samplings in any category can skew results. Stats may not be an exact 15 days from date of this post. DOM = Days On Market.

Home sellers in Overland Park who did get their homes under contract the past 15 days did so in an impressive 97 days on average. It’s concerning though that the average priced new listing came on the market around $280,000, while the average sales price was in the mid $230’s. If your real estate goals involve buying or selling a home in Overland Park Kansas or the surrounding area, please contact me to discuss how we can assist you. We look forward to learning the details surrounding your plans to buy or sell an area home and helping you achieve your real estate goals. 

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Posted by Jason A. Brown

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If Your Overland Park Home Has Mold, Don’t Take Short Cuts To Fix The Problem

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Nearly every home and office building have conditions that make the structure perfect for mold growth. From the products in the home to the perfect room temperatures, your home is ready to grow mold if you simply add the missing ingredient. The missing ingredient is water and, without it, you won’t have to worry about mold. This is why it’s so important to address water issues in your home at the first sign of problems. If you have a plumbing leak in your home, fix it immediately. If you have a window leak, siding leak, roof leak or flashing leak, get a contractor out to properly seal your home up and keep moisture where it belongs – outside of your home. 


Proper maintenance and addressing issues when they first appear will help prevent more costly repairs later. Keeping mold from growing is also important because mold can cause severe health problems. If you’re too late for preventative measures and you find mold in your home, what should you do?  The first step is getting an appropriate contractor out to stop the leak that’s allowing water into your home. Then it’s time to deal with mold. The home inspectors I’ve spoken with say that simply applying bleach to the area is not a satisfactory method (and can actually make the situation worse in many cases). Using this method might kill the surface mold but you also need to know that the hidden mold is killed — or the problem will still be present (just not visibly). 

There are different methods that mold mitigation companies use to kill mold. One company I have experience with here locally is PuroClean here in Johnson County Kansas. They came into one of my Overland Park client’s home to analyze a mold situation. They provided a bid, completed the remediation, did a re-test and the job was completed to both home seller and home buyer’s satisfaction and everyone came away feeling the mold situation had been properly addressed.


Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Taking A Look At The National Housing Stats As We Head Into The Prime Selling Season

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

My National Association or Realtors (NAR) reports that existing home sales in March rose 3.7% over February’s stats. The numbers were down 6.3% however when compared to March of last year. But we were still in the tax credit era at that time, so it’s not a real fair comparison to gauge last March against today’s real estate market. Comparing March stats to February’s however does bring better news to Kansas City home sellers as we head into the prime home selling season.


Existing home sales have in fact risen in all but 2 of the last 8 months. That’s great news. A NAR survey shows that 33% of homes purchased in March were bought by First Time Home Buyers. NAR also reports the average existing home price in March was just under $160,000 — an almost 6% drop from March of 2010 – and an astounding 40% of total sales were distressed properties, such as bank foreclosures and short sales.


Posted by Jason A. Brown

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National Home Prices Take Huge Dip Back To 2002 Levels

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

The U.S. accused Saddam Hussein of developing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. An arrest was made in the D.C. sniper gun attacks. Enron happened. That was a long time ago… 9 years to be exact. And the value of the average U.S. home today is now equivalent to the average home price at the time of those events, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index. The downward trend is likely to continue until the volume of new foreclosure listings slows. Nearly 40% of U.S. homes sold last month were foreclosures or Short Sales (upside down homeowners praying their lender will accept a payoff lower than the borrower’s loan amount).


The conditions present today make it tough for many typical home sellers to catch a break. Some sellers become nervous when their homes don’t sell quickly. Many will make a knee-jerk reaction to drastically lower their prices as they work to gain market acceptance. This erodes values of surrounding homes and becomes a vicious cycle in some cases. To break the cycle, I believe we’re going to need an extended run of positive economic news (should create more buyer demand in the market) and a sizable reduction in the volume of foreclosure listings hitting the market (less supply of distressed homes will increase the demand for typical resale homes).

Some people predict we’ll never again see the real estate appreciation rates we saw for years in our country. While that may be true, to say that the housing market isn’t going to rebound would be bucking history.  Real estate has always rebounded and the pride of homeownership is one of the things that makes our country great. I am amazed when I hear the occasional person say that it’s crazy to own a home. I always tell them, someone is going to own the home they live in. Would they rather it be a landlord making the decisions for them the rest of their lives? I’ve yet to hear a plausible response to the question.  Real estate is also a LOCAL phenomena and the numbers reported nationally are drug down drastically by the real estate bubbles that burst in portions of California, Florida, Colorado and Arizona.


Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Kansas City Mortgage Interest Rates Fall For Third Straight Week

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Mortgage rates were inching higher around the new year but we’ve seen them in a downward trend recently and have actually seen rates drop for a third consecutive week. This is an amazing benefit to buying in today’s real estate market and it’s likely 20 years from now we’ll look back in amazement on the interests rates some of us were able to secure. If you’re considering buying a home, the average national 30-year fixed interest is hovering around 4.75%. Most experts believe interest rates will hold steady for at least the next few weeks.

This week I’ve received notifications from Bank of America advertising 30-year fixed rates at 4.625% and from Wells Fargo advertising 4.875%. Mortgage rates with most lenders change daily and some even update their quoted rates twice a day. So take any interest rate quote you see with a grain of salt because they probably will have changed – possibly up or down – by the time you contact the lender. When buying a home, contact your lender and lock in your rate. If you have a contract, you can lock in the current interest rate for free. If you’re just starting the Kansas City home buying process, you can often pay around $150 to lock in the current interest rate for 60 days. Once you’ve locked in your interest rate, it doesn’t matter if interest goes up during the lock period, because your rate is guaranteed.

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Good News, Bad News: Kansas Home Sales Rise 5% But Sale Prices Fall 8%

Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

My Kansas Association of Realtors (KAR) report on January’s real estate market indicates the volume of home sales is picking up steam. Overall in the state of Kansas, home sales (closings) rose 5.6% in January 2011 compared with January of 2010. This is impressive when you consider that 2009’s figure was inflated by the home buyer tax credit. This market improvement outpaced the national market improvement of 5.3% and these figures are promising both locally and nationally.

There’s still too many homes on the market however, leaving 13.3 months of inventory in the state of Kansas. The months of inventory was calculated using the number of January home sales and dividing that figure into the 17,805 listings that were for sale at the end of January. With still too much supply for demand, homes sellers saw their average sales prices fall from around $160,000 in January 2010 to around $147,000 January of this year. That’s a significant 8% fall in home prices across the state.

Looking closely at our local market in Johnson County Kansas, 321 homes were sold (closed) in January. This was virtually unchanged from the 328 home sales in Johnson County in January 2010. Comparing this January’s sales rate to the amount of inventory currently on the market, we find there’s 11.1 months of inventory available. This amount of inventory indicates a clear buyer’s real estate market in Johnson County Kansas and anyone in the market to make a move should contact us to see some of the great Johnson County Kansas homes for sale.

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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