Tag Archives: Overland Park Real Estate

National Home Prices Take Huge Dip Back To 2002 Levels

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

The U.S. accused Saddam Hussein of developing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. An arrest was made in the D.C. sniper gun attacks. Enron happened. That was a long time ago… 9 years to be exact. And the value of the average U.S. home today is now equivalent to the average home price at the time of those events, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index. The downward trend is likely to continue until the volume of new foreclosure listings slows. Nearly 40% of U.S. homes sold last month were foreclosures or Short Sales (upside down homeowners praying their lender will accept a payoff lower than the borrower’s loan amount).


The conditions present today make it tough for many typical home sellers to catch a break. Some sellers become nervous when their homes don’t sell quickly. Many will make a knee-jerk reaction to drastically lower their prices as they work to gain market acceptance. This erodes values of surrounding homes and becomes a vicious cycle in some cases. To break the cycle, I believe we’re going to need an extended run of positive economic news (should create more buyer demand in the market) and a sizable reduction in the volume of foreclosure listings hitting the market (less supply of distressed homes will increase the demand for typical resale homes).

Some people predict we’ll never again see the real estate appreciation rates we saw for years in our country. While that may be true, to say that the housing market isn’t going to rebound would be bucking history.  Real estate has always rebounded and the pride of homeownership is one of the things that makes our country great. I am amazed when I hear the occasional person say that it’s crazy to own a home. I always tell them, someone is going to own the home they live in. Would they rather it be a landlord making the decisions for them the rest of their lives? I’ve yet to hear a plausible response to the question.  Real estate is also a LOCAL phenomena and the numbers reported nationally are drug down drastically by the real estate bubbles that burst in portions of California, Florida, Colorado and Arizona.


Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Kansas City Mortgage Interest Rates Fall For Third Straight Week

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Mortgage rates were inching higher around the new year but we’ve seen them in a downward trend recently and have actually seen rates drop for a third consecutive week. This is an amazing benefit to buying in today’s real estate market and it’s likely 20 years from now we’ll look back in amazement on the interests rates some of us were able to secure. If you’re considering buying a home, the average national 30-year fixed interest is hovering around 4.75%. Most experts believe interest rates will hold steady for at least the next few weeks.

This week I’ve received notifications from Bank of America advertising 30-year fixed rates at 4.625% and from Wells Fargo advertising 4.875%. Mortgage rates with most lenders change daily and some even update their quoted rates twice a day. So take any interest rate quote you see with a grain of salt because they probably will have changed – possibly up or down – by the time you contact the lender. When buying a home, contact your lender and lock in your rate. If you have a contract, you can lock in the current interest rate for free. If you’re just starting the Kansas City home buying process, you can often pay around $150 to lock in the current interest rate for 60 days. Once you’ve locked in your interest rate, it doesn’t matter if interest goes up during the lock period, because your rate is guaranteed.

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Good News, Bad News: Kansas Home Sales Rise 5% But Sale Prices Fall 8%

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

My Kansas Association of Realtors (KAR) report on January’s real estate market indicates the volume of home sales is picking up steam. Overall in the state of Kansas, home sales (closings) rose 5.6% in January 2011 compared with January of 2010. This is impressive when you consider that 2009’s figure was inflated by the home buyer tax credit. This market improvement outpaced the national market improvement of 5.3% and these figures are promising both locally and nationally.

There’s still too many homes on the market however, leaving 13.3 months of inventory in the state of Kansas. The months of inventory was calculated using the number of January home sales and dividing that figure into the 17,805 listings that were for sale at the end of January. With still too much supply for demand, homes sellers saw their average sales prices fall from around $160,000 in January 2010 to around $147,000 January of this year. That’s a significant 8% fall in home prices across the state.

Looking closely at our local market in Johnson County Kansas, 321 homes were sold (closed) in January. This was virtually unchanged from the 328 home sales in Johnson County in January 2010. Comparing this January’s sales rate to the amount of inventory currently on the market, we find there’s 11.1 months of inventory available. This amount of inventory indicates a clear buyer’s real estate market in Johnson County Kansas and anyone in the market to make a move should contact us to see some of the great Johnson County Kansas homes for sale.

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Overland Park Kansas Real Estate Update – February 2011

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market
Real Estate Info for The City of Overland Park KS
Recent 15 Days of Overland Park Kansas Market Activity

After looking over the past 15 days of Overland Park Kansas real estate activity, I used the figures to calculate the city’s short-term absorption rate. After taking into account the 946 homes for sale in Overland Park, we find there’s 10.8 months of inventory on the market. This is high and Overland Park home sellers need an improvement on an 88 home sale a month pace to eat into the 900+ homes for sale in Overland Park.

Type

#

Average $

Avg DOM

Listings Past 15 Days

 158 $297,623

–

Total Active Listings

 946

–

–

Newest Contracts Written

 93 $260,111 157

Newest Sold (Closed)

 44 $240,785 132

* The Average $ of Newest Contracts considers the price the homes were listed at when they went under contract. Data pulled from Heartland MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Low samplings in any category can skew results. Stats may not be an exact 15 days from date of this post. DOM = Days On Market.

There’s great news in the 94 homes that went under contract during the same 15-day period — that’s more than double the number of homes that closed. If we were to assume all those 94 homes under contract will close (and use that figure to calculate the absorption rate), we’d find there’s 5.1 months of real estate inventory in Overland Park.  5 to 7 seven months of inventory is considered a stable market, so let’s hope the sales trend continues. Still, average prices are a concern with the average home coming on the market around $297,000 but the average home selling for about $240,000.

When buying and selling real estate in Overland Park, you’ll want an agent who is on top of the area’s market conditions. Factoring in the current market conditions is the only way to ensure you are making a sound home purchase or sale. Please contact me when you’re ready for personalized real estate service.

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Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Any Way You Slice It, Shadow Inventory Will Have A Lingering Effect On Kansas City Real Estate Values

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

If you’re not familiar with the term Shadow Inventory, it means homes that are NOT on the market but will be in the near future. This includes bank owned properties that are not yet listed but also includes homes where the owners are significantly behind on payments — and that are likely to be bank-owned properties in the near future. At the slow sales pace being seen nationally, the Wall Street Journal has done some analysis and found there’s more than EIGHT YEARS of Shadow Inventory to be absorbed.


That number is staggering. Of course, it calculates matters using current sales rates. But even if home sales DOUBLED over, say, the next six months, that would reduce the Shadow Inventory to FOUR YEARS. Taking this painful excercise a step further, home sales would need to octuple to get it down to just ONE YEAR of REO shadow inventory we’re faced with today.

A high amount of Shadow Inventory leads to lower prices on bank properties as banks look to move them. Lower prices on bank properties bring down values of the stable homes in a community. That hurts even more homeowners and causes otherwise solid borrowers to be upside down on their homes. This leads to more Short Sales, which are half as bad for a community as a foreclosure but hurtful none-the-less. This leads to lower sales prices for solid borrowers in the area. Which leads to… me being depressed discussing Shadow Inventory.

Now you could also run with Standard & Poor’s estimate that there’s “just” four years of Shadow inventory on the market. Or, if your cup is half full, you could trust that my National Association of Realtors is correct with its assessment that only two percent of the nations properties should be considered Shadow Inventory.


Posted by Jason A. Brown

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December’s Real Estate Stats Indicate Home Sale Prices Are Increasing In The State Of Kansas

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

The Kansas Association of Realtors (KAR) report for December indicates the real estate market in the state of Kansas is stabilizing. After seeing five consecutive months of declining numbers, the number of homes sold (closed) in December 2010 was virtually identical to the number of sales in December of 2009.  This is even more impressive when you consider the previous year’s stats were compiled while we were still in the midst of the home buyer tax credit. The Kansas figures were also much better than the average national stats, which saw the volume of home sales drop 2.9% in December.

The amount of inventory on the market in Kansas stood at 8.8 months in December. In this case, the months of inventory was calculated using the number of December home sales and dividing that figure into the number of homes for sale when the report came out. Just as promising, the average sales in Kansas rose from $151,952 in December 2009 to $158,628 this December. That’s a very significant jump.

Looking closely at our local market, in Johnson County Kansas 521 homes were sold (closed) in  December. This was up from the 460 homes that sold in Johnson County in December 2009. Comparing this December’s sales rate to the amount of inventory  currently on the market indicates there’s 6.6 months of inventory on the market. This amount of inventory indicates a stable real estate market in Johnson County Kansas.

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Comparing Real Estate Markets From Kansas City To Overland Park To Olathe…

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

Many major real estate markets that I keep tabs on are in a buyer’s market. But a few market’s are still in what the “experts” consider a stable market. Most experts generally agree that a buyer’s market is when there’s between 5 to 7 months of inventory on the market. Less than  5 months of inventory is a Seller’s market and more than 7 months of inventory is a buyer’s market.

I usually take a snap shot look at one city or one subdivision at a time, so today I thought it would be interesting to take a look at several of our major metro cities for comparison purposes. The following chart uses the absorption rate over the past 6 months in each city to calculate the months of inventory. As expected, Overland Park is seeing a “stable” real estate market and is followed closely by Prairie Village Kansas and Olathe Kansas…

City

Active Listings

Months of Inventory
Overland Park KS 1,081 5.7
Prairie Village KS 183 6.2
Olathe KS 933 6.5
Shawnee KS 390 7.1
Leawood KS 321 7.2
Lenexa KS 297 7.6
Lee’s Summit MO 832 8.3
Kansas City MO 5,176 9.0

Posted by Jason A. Brown

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Overland Park Kansas Real Estate Update – September 2010

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market
Real Estate Info for The City of Overland Park Kansas
Recent 15 Days of Overland Park KS Market Activity

After calculating the absorption rate over the past 15 days in Overland Park, we can determine there’s currently 8.5 months of inventory on the market. This is high and not helped by the fact that over the past 15 days we saw more than double the number of homes come on the market as were sold over the same period. What we really need is a couple of months where there’s more homes sold (closed) than homes coming on the market to get the months of inventory back down in the five month range.

Type

#

Average $

Avg DOM

Listings Past 15 Days

 158 $278,834

–

Total Active Listings

 1,211

–

–

Newest Contracts Written

 81 $258,209 140

Newest Sold (Closed)

 71 $249,213 113

* The Average $ of Newest Contracts considers the price the homes were listed at when they went under contract. Data pulled from Heartland MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Low samplings in any category can skew results. Stats may not be an exact 15 days from date of this post. DOM = Days On Market.

The average sales price over the last 15 days in Overland Park was just under $250,000 and the average list price of the homes that went under contract is in line with this figure. Still, the average seller who put their home on the market believes their home is worth closer to $280,000. If your real estate goals involve selling an Overland Park home and/or buying an area home, please contact me for assistance. I look forward to going over the market stats that will have an impact on your real estate decisions.

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Posted by Jason A. Brown

Overland Park Kansas Real Estate Update – August 2010

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market
Real Estate Info for The City of Overland Park KS
Recent 15 Days of Overland Park Kansas Market Activity

Comparing the absorption rate over the past 15 days to the volume of inventory on the market in Overland Park Kansas, we can determine that there’s 7.4 months of inventory on the market in this city. This figure continues to creep higher each time I take a look and that’s concerning. The problem I’m seeing is that the number of foreclosures and Short Sales listings hitting the market is outpacing the demand (sales) for area homes. This is the same problem faced in all our metro cities and I find Overland Park to still be the strongest  of our metro area real estate markets. But until the pace of distressed listings slows significantly, we’ll continue to be in a strong buyer’s market.

Type
#
Average $
Avg DOM
Listings Past 15 Days
 171 $280,869
–
Total Active Listings
 1,211
–
–
Newest Contracts Written
 89 $257,812 102
Newest Sold (Closed)
 82 $227,469 98

* The Average $ of Newest Contracts considers the price the homes were listed at when they went under contract. Data pulled from Heartland MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Low samplings in any category can skew results. Stats may not be an exact 15 days from date of this post. DOM = Days On Market.

The first thing I see when looking at the chart above is that there were double the number of homes coming on the market (171) as were sold (82). In the past there’s been promise with the number of homes going under contract easily outpacing the number of homes sold (closed). But over the past 15 days, the number of homes going under contract (89) is only slightly ahead of the number of home that were sold (82). When you consider that past stats indicate it’s a virtual impossibility that all the homes under contract (Pending, Show For Backup Offers and Contingent) will close, we could see an even more challenging market for  Overland Park home sellers the next time we take a look.

Keep in mind that the sales rate doesn’t necessarily have to go up for there to be an improvement. If the number of homes on the market were to drop significantly, it could have an even more dramatic net effect on the months of inventory in Overland Park than simply a rise in the sale’s rate. We’ll continue monitoring the real estate picture in Overland Park and if you’re considering buying or selling an area home, we’ll get you the market stats specific to the community you’re looking to buy or sell a home.

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Tax Credit Party Continues With News That May Homes Sales In Kansas Were Up More Than 20%

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Checking The Pulse Of The Kansas City Real Estate Market

When it was reported about a month ago that April home sales in Kansas had risen more than 40% from the previous April, I was very impressed. Although the news had to be taken with a grain of salt – because it was tax credit fueled – I was still looking forward to seeing some more tax credit fueled sale’s figures for May. Well the figures are out and the party continues with news that Kansas home sales were up more than 20% in May 2010 over May 2009.

This is good news no doubt, but not as impressive as April’s report was compared to the nationally sales figures. In April, the increase in the sales rate from the previous year in Kansas was almost double that of the comparable national sales rate. But in May the increase in the Kansas sales rate was much more in line with what’s going on nationally — a 22.6% increase locally in Kansas compared to 19.2% nationally. The raw numbers, as reported by my Kansas Association of Realtors (KAR), shows there were 3,355 homes sold this May, compared to 2,737 in May 2009.

KAR reports there’s 5.6 months of inventory on the market, which is a slight improvement over April’s report of 5.7 months of inventory. Before there was an extension to the deadline for tax credit closings to occur, many close dates were set for mid to late June. So I expect that when June’s figures are release those will be better than last year as well. The extension provided for closings may also lead to higher sales rates when the July and August stats are reported down the road. In other news from the May report, the average sales price in Kansas was $157,822. This is a decrease from the $161,928 average sale’s price in May 2009.  Taking an isolated look at the Johnson County Kansas real estate market, there were 935 home sales in May of this year, which was a 22% increase over May 2009.


Posted by Jason A. Brown